Good demand will support high seafood prices in the first half of 2022. Supply for salmon will be tight, but shrimp supply will increase in the next few months. High production costs due to freight, feed commodity, labour, and energy costs will be a key theme this year.
Strong demand driven by Covid recovery
For most seafood species, including salmon and shrimp, 2021 was a year of demand recovery. New growth in at-home seafood consumption was a major feature of demand recovery in 2021, and this is expected to lead a long-term increase in demand.
According to Rabobank's latest report on aquaculture, Omicron and possible new Covid strains are the key threats to recovering demand. A good demand environment for seafood is expected, if the economic recovery from Covid continues.
'The US and EU will continue to experience the strong demand growth seen in 2021, and China is showing signs of recovery in import demand. For China, this should mean a return to pre-pandemic import levels during 2022,' explains Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Global Specialist, Seafood at Rabobank.
Elevated costs to persist
Costs for all seafood reached new highs in 2021 as energy, feed commodity, labor, and freight costs increased sharply. And elevated input prices are expected to remain through at least the first half of 2022.
Regarding supply in 1H 2022, Mr Nikolik states, 'Salmon supply will be tight and even negative due to low production in Norway. Shrimp supply is expected to grow, supported by the good price and demand environment. And we expect normal fish meal production, with no El Niño.'
For more information about Rabobank visit the website, HERE.
The Aquaculturists
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