August 28, 2024 - According to a recent RaboResearch report, China is poised to drive 40 percent of the global growth in seafood consumption to 2030. This tremendous growth, fuelled by China's economic prosperity, large population, and high seafood demand, could transform China into a US$29 billion market for seafood imports. Higher-value seafood should benefit, driven by a growing upper-middle class and e-commerce expansion.
"China's economic prosperity, coupled with its population of 1.4 billion consumers and a high affinity for seafood, positions it as the most promising growth market for seafood this decade," said Novel Sharma, Seafood Analyst at RaboResearch. Chinese seafood consumption is expected to grow by 5.5 million metric tonnes through 2030, outstripping local supply. "We expect China to seek resources beyond its borders to ensure adequate supply and close the widening gap between demand and supply by the decade's end."
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Both volume- and value-driven seafood demand expected
The forecast for China's seafood demand for the remainder of the decade is a combination of volume- and value-driven growth. "We anticipate that urbanisation, the growth of upper-middle-class consumer groups, and the expansion of e-commerce channels will drive a trend toward demand for higher-value seafood in the long term," says Sharma.
"If this pivot to higher-value seafood continues, value-driven consumption growth will likely outpace volume-driven growth, with China potentially emerging as a US$ 29 billion seafood import market by 2030, creating ample opportunities for global seafood exporters."
Volume-based opportunities will still be significant, however. Domestic producers should benefit, as they typically focus on lower-value species and the mass market is likely to remain price-sensitive.
A US$10 billion seafood import opportunity
RaboResearch expects China's demand for seafood imports to grow by US$10 billion by 2030. "This anticipated import growth could reshape the global seafood industry," Sharma posits. "High-value species such as salmon, lobster, crabs and wild shrimp, of which China has limited to no domestic production, may see the largest gains. High-value species like farmed shrimp, for which China's demand surpasses its production, also stand to benefit."
Opportunities for seafood exports to China are ripe for Southeast Asian countries and India, particularly for shrimp, crabs and marine fish. Central to Latin America, known for their competitive seafood exports, could unlock further growth, especially for high-value species like shrimp and salmon. Ecuador has already capitalised on China's farmed shrimp demand in recent years.
"As China transitions to being the major global seafood buyer and price setter, the decisions it makes regarding seafood consumption and sourcing will have a global impact," Sharma concludes. "It will be important for global exporters to monitor China's evolving demand dynamics closely to identify potential untapped opportunities,"
A US$10 billion seafood import opportunity
RaboResearch expects China's demand for seafood imports to grow by US$10 billion by 2030. "This anticipated import growth could reshape the global seafood industry," Sharma posits. "High-value species such as salmon, lobster, crabs and wild shrimp, of which China has limited to no domestic production, may see the largest gains. High-value species like farmed shrimp, for which China's demand surpasses its production, also stand to benefit."
Opportunities for seafood exports to China are ripe for Southeast Asian countries and India, particularly for shrimp, crabs and marine fish. Central to Latin America, known for their competitive seafood exports, could unlock further growth, especially for high-value species like shrimp and salmon. Ecuador has already capitalised on China's farmed shrimp demand in recent years.
"As China transitions to being the major global seafood buyer and price setter, the decisions it makes regarding seafood consumption and sourcing will have a global impact," Sharma concludes. "It will be important for global exporters to monitor China's evolving demand dynamics closely to identify potential untapped opportunities,"
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