The value of the global seafood trade reached new heights in 2021. A new Rabobank report expects this strong rebound to endure through 2022, as the world continues to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic. Major markets like the US and Europe have fully recovered, while China is gradually returning to pre-pandemic import levels. Premium aquaculture has been the decade's winner – in particular, farmed salmon and shrimp.
Fish is one of the world's most traded food commodities, with demand expected to increase another 15 percent in the next decade. The most traded animal protein, seafood has a trade value 3.6 times the size of beef, five times that of pork, and eight times the size of the global poultry trade. In 2021, the value of the global seafood trade grew by USD 13 billion, reaching a new peak of more than USD 164 billion.
The US and China are driving demand
The US is the fastest-growing market for seafood imports, with demand driven by health- and sustainability-conscious consumers, particularly among millennials and baby boomers. 'Seafood trade in the US recovered more than expected in 2021 due to a combination of sustained at-home consumption and strong foodservice recovery,' explains Novel Sharma, Analyst – Seafood at Rabobank. 'These factors led to peak imports for many species and an increase in import market share of high-value species. We expect long-term seafood demand to continue rising in the US.'
China is one of the most important seafood markets, with a growing middle class interested in premium products. Wild catch and aquaculture production do not satisfy local demand, leaving China increasingly reliant on imports, especially for premium species like shrimp, crab, and salmon. The country's latest plan for national fishery development aims to expand aquaculture production to meet domestic demand. 'In the short term, we do not expect a significant increase in volumes, and therefore we anticipate limited impact on trade flows,' says Mr Sharma. Chinese imports took a hit during the pandemic and have not fully recovered to 2019 levels. 'For now, Covid-19 restrictions will continue to impact the market. However, we expect these measures to be temporary, and imports should return to normal levels in the long term.'
Salmon and shrimp continue their ascent
Farmed salmon was one of the winning proteins of the decade, supported by growing demand for healthy and convenient protein, especially in Europe and the US. Trade value dropped in 2020 but has rebounded with consumers continuing to cook more fish at home. 'Post-pandemic, the salmon trade's value has been fueled by high prices due to increasing demand and restricted supply growth. Expansion of volumes will be essential for continued growth,' cautions Mr Sharma.
Shrimp is the most traded seafood species, with short production cycles that allow exporters to respond quickly to demand changes. According to Rabobank, the shrimp trade is at an inflection point. Following record demand and supply in 2021, prices have been dropping since the second quarter of this year. Demand and prices have come down while costs (feed, freight, energy) are still high, impacting farmer profitability. 'This falling demand is likely to cause a short-term trade decline,' says Mr Sharma. 'Still, we do believe in shrimp industry growth. The industry is support by strong, long-term demand, given shrimp's position as a healthy and convenient seafood product with universal appeal.'
For more information visit the Rabobank website, HERE.
The Aquaculturists
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